SERIES UG-SE-21 · PLANNING PROSPECTUS
Inner Southeast Portland
Last-Hop Utility & On-Lot Inference
Origin household · Ladd's Addition historic district south to Powell Boulevard · People's Food Co-op membership motion
This is a planning prospectus from public taxlots, live origin traceroute/RDAP/DoH, OpenVault-class load bands, and PCC 7.14 checkpoints. It is not a registered securities offering, not a tariff, not a City of Portland permit, and not a carrier quote. No owner names, SSN, DOB, or FOIA bodies. Figures are bands so a reader can underwrite — not wire funds.
I. The offering
The origin lot sits on Lumen/Qwest last-mile (AS209, ptld-dsl-gw49.ptld.qwest.net) that hands to Portland BAR
ae2.bar3.por1.sp.lumen.tech / 4.68.38.153 in about nine milliseconds, then Seattle edge and Cloudflare SEA.
The offering is an on-lot civic server first, then a city-path neighborhood hop priced under the incumbents, converted the way
People's Food Co-op already converts walk-ins at 3029 SE 21st — on this sidewalk — not as a franchise war.
- Series A — Origin. Serve only 3116. No city license. Mini + CPE. Ready now.
- Series B — Near block. SE 20th–22nd / Tibbetts–Powell. People's Co-op is inside. Flyer-scale.
- Series C — District. All of Ladd's Addition south to Powell. 1,582 lots. Requires upgraded path, ROW if fiber, and a real opex line — not NAT on the existing DSL-named hop.
II. Origin asset — ground truth vs the web
| Item | House truth | Web / plant claim | Class |
|---|---|---|---|
| Situs | 3116 SE 21st Ave, 97202, Hosford-Abernethy | ipinfo Portland / postal 97204 downtown | city-class |
| Coordinate | 45.500299, −122.644375 | 45.5234, −122.6762 · 3.57 km | city-class |
| IDs | RNO R585600350 · BDS R221385 · 1928 · R2.5 | VERSION rno = Metro RNO, not BDS pid | aligned |
| Public IP | 75.164.210.0 · ptld.qwest.net · AS209 | RDAP Qwest inet · Monroe LA HQ | org-hq |
| Access hop | 207.225.84.49 ptld-dsl-gw49 | DSL-named last-mile — uplink is the bind | city-class |
| Main pipe | 4.68.38.153 ae2.bar3.por1.sp.lumen.tech · ~9 ms | DoH A matches traceroute hop 4 | aligned |
| Coast / CDN | Residence is POR | SEA edge · CF colo SEA | edge-colo |
| Street main | BES CSML 8″ ABZ145–ABZ234 in SE 21st ROW | Between 3116 and 3115 plant | neighbor |
| Across street | 3115 SE 21st · R287662 · plant only | Not the house | neighbor |
| South fixture | 3126 SE 21st · R221386 · 1926 | OSINT smoke lot | neighbor |
III. Territory — Ladd's Addition south to Powell
| Measure | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Historic district | Ladd's Addition NR 88001310 · 135.7 acres · 1891–1939 | BPS historic districts |
| Envelope | 45.4987–45.5130 N · 122.6543–122.6439 W | Hawthorne / Ladd Circle → Powell · 12th → 22nd |
| Taxlots | 1,582 unique | PortlandMaps Taxlots |
| Housing units | ~2,177 | Sum of UNITS |
| Inhabitants (est.) | ~4,680 | Units × 2.15 ACS class |
| ZIP 97214 | 911 lots (violet) | Ladd's / Hawthorne |
| ZIP 97202 | 670 lots | Division → Powell · origin + co-op |
| Year built | 1868–2015 · median 1924 | YEARBUILT |
| People's Food Co-op | 3029 SE 21st · 1900 commercial · 11,000 users (given) | On this sidewalk |
| 3125–3145 SE 21st | 11 units | Taxlot UNITS |
Person-age mix is zip-class, not a roster: 0–17 16% · 18–34 27% · 35–54 32% · 55–74 18% · 75+ 7% → about 749 / 1,264 / 1,498 / 842 / 328 people.
IV. Demand — loads, AI vs TV / satellite
Origin household (this desk)
| Period | Down | Up | Busy-hour / burst |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hour (mean) | 1.92 GB | 301 MB | 16.4 ↓ / 2.6 ↑ Mbps · burst 65 Mbps |
| Day | 46 GB | 7.2 GB | — |
| Week | 322 GB | 51 GB | — |
| Month | 1.4 TB | 220 GB | — |
| Quarter | 4.2 TB | 660 GB | — |
| Year | 16.8 TB | 2.64 TB | — |
Profiles: light 200/20 GB-mo · median 680/55 · house-server 3.9/2.72 TB-mo (needs symmetric path). Origin IT/comms ~280 W.
| Cohort | AI | TV | Sat | WFH | Phone | IoT | Game | W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| pre-1920 | 8% | 42% | 10% | 10% | 18% | 6% | 6% | 95 |
| 1920–45 (most of district) | 10% | 38% | 8% | 12% | 18% | 7% | 7% | 110 |
| 1946–79 | 14% | 32% | 5% | 14% | 16% | 10% | 9% | 140 |
| This house | 32% | 18% | 2% | 20% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 280 |
Also on the wire: phone offload, cameras, civic open data, mesh backhaul, overnight batch tokens.
V. Cost to the area by provider
District column = 50% of 2,177 units ≈ 1,089 homes. Local-ISP fixed opex below is origin-lab. At Series C, opex must scale.
| Provider | Kind | Retail / home | Area @ 34 | Area @ 1,089 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lumen / Qwest (current) | wireline | $65 | $2,210 | $70,785 |
| Xfinity cable | cable | $70 | $2,380 | $76,230 |
| Starlink LEO | satellite | $120 + dish | $4,080 | $130,680 |
| T-Mobile 5G Home | cell | $50 | $1,700 | $54,450 |
| Verizon 5G Home | cell | $65 | $2,210 | $70,785 |
| Mesh relay | Wi-Fi / 60 GHz | $20 | $680 | $21,780 |
| This house · city-path | local | $45 | $1,530 | $49,005 |
VI. Series B unit economics (local ISP @ 34 homes)
Revenue $1,530/mo. Loaded cost ≈ $299 including 5% PCC 7.14 if it applies. Planning profit ≈ $1,230/mo. Break-even ≈ 5 homes at $45. Shifts: morning 22% · swing 53% · night 25%.
| Grain | Area cost | Profit | Morning | Swing | Night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ms | 19 n$ | 15 n$ | — | — | — |
| s | 19 µ$ | 16 µ$ | — | — | — |
| hr | $0.070 | $0.056 | $0.012 | $0.030 | $0.014 |
| cycle (8h) | $0.56 | $0.45 | $0.29 | $0.71 | $0.34 |
| day | $1.68 | $1.35 | $0.30 | $0.72 | $0.34 |
| week | $11.80 | $9.50 | $2.09 | $5.03 | $2.37 |
| month | $1,530 | $1,232 | $271 | $653 | $308 |
| year | $18,360 | $14,780 | — | — | — |
VII. Token annex
Mini-class inference. Metered $/MTok does not beat cloud. The house product is a local-model subscription.
| Tier | tok/s | Tokens / mo | Metered profit | 30% attach · $8 sub |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Local 8B | 30 | ~36 M | ≈ $0 (power ≈ revenue) | ~$75 (10 subs @ B) |
| Local 14–32B | 12 | ~14 M | Slightly negative | Same sub, more watts |
| Cloud resale | 80 | ~96 M | ~$23 (buy $0.15 / sell $0.40) | Add-on, not on-lot weights |
VIII. City path & co-op conversion
| Gate | Status | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Own-lot LAN / server | Ready | Series A. No license. |
| PCC 7.14 Utility License | Checkpoint | 5% if it applies. Telecom text excludes consumer-internet-only — confirm with BPS. portland.gov/code/7/14 |
| PBOT ROW | If fiber | New laterals / street cuts. |
| PGE poles | If aerial | Strand-mount / last-hop radios. |
| Oregon PUC | If public | For-hire telecom. Members-only may differ. |
| FCC labels / BDC | If consumer ISP | Nutrition labels and map reporting. |
| People's Co-op motion | Analog | 11,000 users. 1% = ~$4,950/mo. 5% = ~$24,750/mo at $45. |
IX. Operations — status.ugrad.ai
status.ugrad.ai is the Workers 1027 meter (Bollinger / RSI / MACD throttle). Tunnel 1033 as of 17 Aug 2026 01:42Z. Mirror live at status-qbitos.pages.dev. House hop ~9 ms to POR BAR; CF colo is SEA.
X. Risk factors
- Uplink is DSL-named. District NAT is not an offering.
- PCC 7.14 may or may not attach to consumer internet.
- Series C opex is not $40/mo.
- Lumen and Xfinity already occupy plant. ROW is political.
- ipinfo already pins this circuit downtown. A third-party ISP can make that worse.
- Local metered tokens do not clear power. Only the privacy subscription does.
- status.ugrad tunnel 1033 — Mini is not an SLA until the tunnel stays up.
- This is not a security. No equity, note, or token is being sold by this page.
XI. Dwelling scope — income band and ISP availability (north → south)
Live sortable speedscope on the underwriting card: /tools/owner-tree#dwellScope. Envelope is Ladd's Addition south to Powell. One row per taxlot, north at the top. Recalibrate income index, comms-share, availability floor, year cut, and plan price; CSV / JSON export is the dataset for this prospectus.
No owner names. “Owner class” is mail-city / ZIP only (local-mail vs absentee-mail from OWNERZIP / OWNERCITY). Income is ACS 2024 5-year median household income for the situs ZIP, scaled by dwelling-age cohort and occupancy class. It is not a paystub and not an individual return.
| ZIP | ACS 2024 5-yr median HH | Role in envelope |
|---|---|---|
| 97202 | $104,971 | Origin + co-op · Division → Powell |
| 97214 | $87,131 | Ladd's / Hawthorne |
| 97206 | $98,548 | East edge if the envelope opens |
| 97266 | $72,577 | Powell / 82nd spine (Target / Marshall) |
| Multnomah County | $88,766 | Fallback when ZIP is missing |
ISP availability is a 0–100 planning score: plant class (Xfinity cable vs Lumen/Qwest DSL-named), year built, local-mail vs absentee-mail, SFR vs multifamily. Ready = dwelling units > 0, score ≥ floor (default 45), year ≥ cut, and absentee included or not. Take $ = ready units × plan price × take-rate. Recalibrate; do not treat a ready flag as a signed offtake or an FCC BDC listing.
XII. State LLM serve — Oregon and all 50 + DC
Live picker and full table: /tools/owner-tree#orLlm. Product is a privacy subscription on local weights. Metered Mini $/MTok ≈ power. Occupied housing units and median HH income are ACS 2024 1-year (B25003 / B19013). Attach is not offtake. Boxes = ceil(users ÷ 2,500) on the H100-class stack ($20/mo sub, ~$7,850/mo all-in per node).
United States 1% attach · 132,737,146 occupied HU · 1,327,371 subs · 531 H100-class nodes · rev $26.55M/mo · profit $22.38M/mo · $268.5M/yr.
Oregon 1% (origin state, ACS 1,744,270 HU — tighter than the county-sum planning class 1,797,500) · 17,443 subs · 7 nodes · $294k/mo · $3.53M/yr. Same stack as the other states.
Oregon box mix at 1% (capacity-honest, same as the live card):
| Box | Seats | Sub | Boxes | Rev / mo | Stack / mo | Profit / mo | Profit / yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H100-class | 2,500 | $20 | 7 | $348,860 | $55,000 | $293,900 | $3.53M |
| 8-GPU 70B-q | 350 | $16 | 50 | $279,088 | $98,000 | $181,000 | $2.17M |
| 8-GPU 8B | 600 | $12 | 30 | $209,316 | $38,000 | $171,000 | $2.05M |
| Mini 8B fleet | 80 | $8 | 219 | $139,544 | $23,100 | $116,000 | $1.40M |
| Cloud API resale | — | 300k tok | api | $2,093 | $810 | $1,280 | $15k |
All states + DC at 1% attach · H100-class · $20 sub. Sorted by profit. Planning bands, not a quote.
| State | Occupied HU | ACS HH $ | Subs | H100 | Rev / mo | Profit / mo | Profit / yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 132,737,146 | — | 1,327,371 | 531 | $26.55M | $22.38M | $268.55M |
| California | 13,797,638 | $100,149 | 137,976 | 56 | $2.76M | $2.32M | $27.84M |
| Texas | 11,449,769 | $79,721 | 114,498 | 46 | $2.29M | $1.93M | $23.15M |
| Florida | 9,141,675 | $77,735 | 91,417 | 37 | $1.83M | $1.54M | $18.45M |
| New York | 7,828,074 | $85,820 | 78,281 | 32 | $1.57M | $1.31M | $15.77M |
| Pennsylvania | 5,361,724 | $77,545 | 53,617 | 22 | $1.07M | $899,629 | $10.80M |
| Illinois | 5,105,448 | $83,211 | 51,054 | 21 | $1.02M | $856,220 | $10.27M |
| Ohio | 4,929,322 | $72,212 | 49,293 | 20 | $985,860 | $828,850 | $9.95M |
| North Carolina | 4,496,359 | $73,958 | 44,964 | 18 | $899,280 | $757,971 | $9.10M |
| Georgia | 4,220,732 | $79,991 | 42,207 | 17 | $844,140 | $710,682 | $8.53M |
| Michigan | 4,131,281 | $72,389 | 41,313 | 17 | $826,260 | $692,802 | $8.31M |
| New Jersey | 3,543,944 | $104,294 | 35,439 | 15 | $708,780 | $591,023 | $7.09M |
| Virginia | 3,449,307 | $92,090 | 34,493 | 14 | $689,860 | $579,953 | $6.96M |
| Washington | 3,168,080 | $99,389 | 31,681 | 13 | $633,620 | $531,564 | $6.38M |
| Arizona | 2,982,475 | $81,486 | 29,825 | 12 | $596,500 | $502,294 | $6.03M |
| Tennessee | 2,928,765 | $71,997 | 29,288 | 12 | $585,760 | $491,554 | $5.90M |
| Massachusetts | 2,829,804 | $104,828 | 28,298 | 12 | $565,960 | $471,754 | $5.66M |
| Indiana | 2,775,637 | $71,959 | 27,756 | 12 | $555,120 | $460,914 | $5.53M |
| Missouri | 2,563,244 | $71,589 | 25,632 | 11 | $512,640 | $426,285 | $5.12M |
| Wisconsin | 2,535,198 | $77,488 | 25,352 | 11 | $507,040 | $420,685 | $5.05M |
| Colorado | 2,479,892 | $97,113 | 24,799 | 10 | $495,980 | $417,475 | $5.01M |
| Maryland | 2,401,394 | $102,905 | 24,014 | 10 | $480,280 | $401,775 | $4.82M |
| Minnesota | 2,363,442 | $87,117 | 23,634 | 10 | $472,680 | $394,175 | $4.73M |
| South Carolina | 2,222,890 | $72,350 | 22,229 | 9 | $444,580 | $373,926 | $4.49M |
| Alabama | 2,059,528 | $66,659 | 20,595 | 9 | $411,900 | $341,246 | $4.09M |
| Kentucky | 1,865,456 | $64,526 | 18,655 | 8 | $373,100 | $310,296 | $3.72M |
| Louisiana | 1,848,965 | $60,986 | 18,490 | 8 | $369,800 | $306,996 | $3.68M |
| Oregon | 1,744,270 | $85,220 | 17,443 | 7 | $348,860 | $293,907 | $3.53M |
| Oklahoma | 1,603,748 | $66,148 | 16,037 | 7 | $320,740 | $265,787 | $3.19M |
| Connecticut | 1,455,235 | $96,049 | 14,552 | 6 | $291,040 | $243,937 | $2.93M |
| Iowa | 1,343,422 | $75,501 | 13,434 | 6 | $268,680 | $221,577 | $2.66M |
| Arkansas | 1,246,754 | $62,106 | 12,468 | 5 | $249,360 | $210,108 | $2.52M |
| Nevada | 1,238,925 | $81,134 | 12,389 | 5 | $247,780 | $208,528 | $2.50M |
| Kansas | 1,204,374 | $75,514 | 12,044 | 5 | $240,880 | $201,628 | $2.42M |
| Utah | 1,184,428 | $96,658 | 11,844 | 5 | $236,880 | $197,628 | $2.37M |
| Mississippi | 1,176,690 | $59,127 | 11,767 | 5 | $235,340 | $196,088 | $2.35M |
| New Mexico | 856,970 | $67,816 | 8,570 | 4 | $171,400 | $139,998 | $1.68M |
| Nebraska | 824,012 | $76,376 | 8,240 | 4 | $164,800 | $133,398 | $1.60M |
| West Virginia | 740,840 | $60,798 | 7,408 | 3 | $148,160 | $124,609 | $1.50M |
| Idaho | 751,181 | $81,166 | 7,512 | 4 | $150,240 | $118,838 | $1.43M |
| Maine | 615,235 | $76,442 | 6,152 | 3 | $123,040 | $99,489 | $1.19M |
| New Hampshire | 570,689 | $99,782 | 5,707 | 3 | $114,140 | $90,589 | $1.09M |
| Hawaii | 493,151 | $100,745 | 4,932 | 2 | $98,640 | $82,939 | $995,268 |
| Montana | 468,981 | $75,340 | 4,690 | 2 | $93,800 | $78,099 | $937,188 |
| Rhode Island | 448,318 | $83,504 | 4,483 | 2 | $89,660 | $73,959 | $887,508 |
| Delaware | 412,304 | $87,534 | 4,123 | 2 | $82,460 | $66,759 | $801,108 |
| South Dakota | 382,302 | $76,881 | 3,823 | 2 | $76,460 | $60,759 | $729,108 |
| North Dakota | 349,705 | $77,871 | 3,497 | 2 | $69,940 | $54,239 | $650,868 |
| District of Columbia | 329,687 | $109,707 | 3,297 | 2 | $65,940 | $50,239 | $602,868 |
| Vermont | 285,548 | $82,730 | 2,855 | 2 | $57,100 | $41,399 | $496,788 |
| Alaska | 274,045 | $95,665 | 2,740 | 2 | $54,800 | $39,099 | $469,188 |
| Wyoming | 256,289 | $75,532 | 2,563 | 2 | $51,260 | $35,559 | $426,708 |
Stack = duty-cycle power @ $0.15/kWh + capex/36 + box opex. House Mini at 12 subs is about +$91/mo electricity-only and about −$10/mo full-stack. Cloud resale at household-light tokens is not a state P&L. 0.1% / 5% attach live on the card. 5% is ops, power, and politics — not a slide.
XIII. Next
Keep Series A on. Price a Series B flyer in People's membership language. Ask BPS about members-only hops. Sort the dwelling scope north → south, export CSV, and drop the ready-unit take into the flyer. Do not sell Starlink or 5G as the district backbone. Live underwriting: /tools/owner-tree.
Prepared 17 August 2026. Reprint inside the project. Do not file as an SEC or Oregon DFR prospectus.